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Press Release – European Train: Europe on the way to InnoTrans 2026
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Track Buckling Risk Model
Challenge
European railways need to become more resilient to the effects of climate change. With extreme weather affecting railway networks, anticipating temperature-related risks such as track buckling is an important part of keeping services safe and reliable.
The solution
Europe’s Rail (EU-Rail)’s solution for track-buckling risk assessment quantifies the risk of track buckling by translating inspection measures into equivalent temperatures.
This provides an operational way to assess and predict the risk of track buckling, particularly after track restoration works.
What it does
The Reality Model has already been piloted in the Netherlands. Strukton Rail plans to further optimise the tool over the coming year, with the first full operational use expected by the end of 2026. The aim is for the Reality Model to become a standard tool for infrastructure designers, maintenance planning, and ERTMS deployment across the Dutch network and potentially elsewhere in Europe.
Maturity level
TRL 7
Expected benefits
The solutions provides an economic benefit by enabling operational risk estimation in relation to track restoration. It is estimated to help reduce traffic disruptions, with potential savings of approximately € 15–25 million.
Who benefits
Infrastructure Managers
Railway operators
Suppliers
Final users
Conclusion
In conclusion, EU-Rail’s solution marks an important step towards safer and more efficient track restoration. By enabling the risk of track buckling to be assessed and predicted, it can help reduce traffic disruptions and their associated costs.
Learn more about the project
FP3-IAM4Rail
This solution has been developed within the EU-Rail Flagship Project FP3-IAM4RAIL. The project FP3-IAM4RAIL focuses on seven different integrated demonstrators for rail assets which are key for research and innovation in the rail sector.